Number on dorm supply ​

In depth explanation of the number on dorm supply

what does this mean!?

S-ranker comes in 98 drops (97% chance to be NEW). NEW S-ranker in 3 S-ranker drop(s)

The first part describes the "guarantee"

S-ranker comes in 98 drops

• this means that in the next 98 pulls, you will get an S-rank valk. the number goes down by 1 for each pull you do where you don't get an S-rank valk.
• when you start out, this number is 25. after you get your first S-rank valk from the supply, it goes back to 25. after you get your second S-rank valk from the supply, it goes to 100, and it will go back to 100 after every S-rank valk you get.
• it is possible to get an S-rank before that number goes down to 1, after which, yes, the number resets based on the aforesaid policy.

The second part describes the likelihood of a S-rank valk drop to be a new S-rank valk

97% chance to be NEW

• if a pull is decided to be an S-rank valk for whatever reason, the game then decides which S-rank valk.
• this number describes the likelihood of that valk to be an S-rank valk you do not own
• many players ask how this number works: it is a function of the number of S-rank valks in dorm supply that you do not own!
• to be more specific: likelihood_of_new = Fixed_r + Variable_r where Fixed_r is a constant. Let's say it's 40%. (It was once-upon-a-time time exactly 40%, but I think it is a little lower now.) Then, Variable_r = 60% / total_number_of_Svalks_in_dorm * unowned_Svalks_in_dorm. (The 60% comes from 100% minus 40%.)
• the likelihood of getting a specific S-rank valk that you do not own is Fixed_r / unowned_Svalks_in_dorm + 60% / total_number_of_Svalks_in_dorm.
• if you have none of the S-rank valks in dorm, this number is 100%. if you have all of the S-rank valks in dorm, this number is Fixed_r.

The third part describes the guarantee across pulls that are S-rank

NEW S-ranker in 3 S-ranker drop(s)

• if you keep getting S-rank valks that you already own, this guarantee kicks in.
• this number goes back to 3 every time you get an S-rank that you do not own. this number goes down by 1 every time you get an S-rank that you do own.
• when this number is 1, when the pull is decided to be an S-rank valk for whatever reason, it will certainly be a new S-rank valk where the rate of each specific unowned S-rank valk is 100% / unowned_Svalks_in_dorm.
• if you already own all S-rank valks in dorm, you get one of the S-rank valks with equal probability.